Tenant retention is a valuable — though sometimes elusive — contributing factor to the strength of a multifamily property. Nationally, 29% of multifamily households signed a third lease for the same unit, according to an analysis of the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey. Locally, renter turnover was lowest in major coastal markets, like New York City, and highest in transient renter markets, like Charleston, SC.
While markets undergo rapid recalibration, the small multifamily market’s performance remains strong and stable. Arbor’s Small Multifamily Investment Trends Report Q2 2025, developed in partnership with Chandan Economics, details how the sector’s resilient fundamentals effectively support its growth amid ongoing economic volatility.
FREDDIE MAC® Proprietary Preferred Equity behind Conventional Loans Arbor now offers access to proprietary preferred equity behind all Freddie Mac Conventional loans we originate. With Arbor, you can simultaneously secure a senior loan and preferred equity under one roof, streamlining your experience throughout the lifecycle of your loan.
The U.S. multifamily market continued to settle into a more normalized cycle during the first quarter of 2025, as well-positioned investors began to take advantage of new opportunities in an uncertain economic environment.
The U.S. multifamily market continued to settle into a normalized cycle during the first quarter of 2025, despite ongoing uncertainties surrounding the global economy and labor market.
In a rapidly evolving economic environment, the top markets for multifamily investment tend to shift quickly. In this video, Dr. Sam Chandan, founding director of the C.H. Chen Institute for Global Real Estate Finance at the NYU Stern School of Business and founder of Chandan Economics, discusses the findings of Arbor’s Top Markets for Multifamily Investment Report Spring 2025, which was developed in partnership with Chandan Economics.
Inspired to advance Arbor’s more than 30-year legacy of tree plantings, our Long Island and Buffalo teams recently planted saplings, adding to the over 20,400 trees planted and pledged throughout our company’s history.
Population growth, a critical factor in assessing rental housing demand, increased 0.9% in the U.S. during 2024, the fastest annual rate since 2008. However, growth rates were much higher for many markets, especially those in Texas, Florida, and the Carolinas. As first explored in Arbor’s Top Markets for Multifamily Investment Report Spring 2025, we dive deeper into metro-level population growth in markets with at least 500,000 residents to find the nation’s top markets for rental housing demand growth.
Q: What is the Arbor Small Multifamily Price Index (ASMPI)?
A: The ASMPI estimates the average price appreciation for small multifamily properties on a quarterly basis, by comparing small multifamily cap rates and small multifamily rents.
Q: What is an index?
A: • An index starts with an assigned base, then increases or decreases with the change in value. In the case of the ASMPI, a base value of 100.0 is assigned to Q1 2000.
• For example, if the ASMPI stood at 100, then increased 5.0% during the quarter, the new value would be 105. Likewise, if the index decreased 5.0%, the new value would be 95.
• Other frequently used indices in the real estate industry include the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index and the Consumer Price Index.
Q: What is the purpose of the ASMPI?
A: • Given the lack of affordable rental housing supply to meet the robust demand, the index’s quarterly data provides insights on potential investment opportunities in the property sector.
• The index fills an important need in the marketplace for quarterly data analytics focused on small multifamily properties.
Q: How is the ASMPI calculated?
A: The ASMPI is calculated by comparing the historical relationship of cap rates on properties with primary mortgages between $1 million and $7.5 million, and the rental income earned on small multifamily properties (5 to 49 units).
Q: How do you define a “small multifamily property”?
A: For the purposes of the ASMPI, we define small multifamily properties as those which have 5 to 49 units. This is consistent with the distinctions made in the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey.
Q: How do you define a “primary mortgage” on a property?
A: A primary mortgage means that at least 50% or more of the financing on the property comes from this loan. For the purposes of the ASMPI, we use Chandan Economics’ database of loans with primary mortgages of $1 million to $7.5 million.
Q: What is the formula for calculating the ASMPI?
A: Property Valuation = Net Operating Income / Cap Rate
Q: What is a cap rate?
A: A cap rate is the annual rate of return on a property, also known as the annual yield.
Q: How do you determine the cap rates for the formula?
A: Chandan Economics tracks small multifamily cap rates through its loan database and economic models consisting of small multifamily properties with primary mortgages between $1 million and $7.5 million.
Q: How do you determine the net operating income for the formula?
A: • Operating income is calculated based on Chandan Economics’ models of annual contract rents for multifamily properties with 5 to 49 units, using data published by the U.S. Census Bureau in the American Community Survey.
• Operating income is adjusted for any vacancy losses. Other forms of property income other than direct rental income are not included as part of the model.
• An assumption in the model is that variable operating expenses are passed through to tenants.
Q: What is the methodology for the ASMPI?
A: The Arbor Small Multifamily Price Index is calculated by comparing the historical relationship of cap rates and operating income. Cap rates data are sourced from Chandan Economics’ loan database and data models consisting of properties with primary mortgages between $1 million and $7.5 million. Operating income is estimated by Chandan Economics’ models of annual rents on multifamily properties with 5 to 49 units. Primary sample data used for small multifamily rents model is sourced by the U.S. Census Bureau as part of the American Community Survey.
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