As the interest rate outlook brightens, unique opportunities for outsized returns abound, Dr. Sam Chandan, Founding Director of the C.H. Chen Institute for Global Real Estate Finance at the NYU Stern School of Business and the Non-Executive Chairman of Chandan Economics, explains in this top-level overview of Arbor’s latest Special Report.
Continually challenged by low inventory, affordable housing sits at a crossroads following the 2024 election. Incoming leadership plans to introduce market-based principles to an agenda that may also include an expanded Housing Choice Voucher program. Arbor’s Affordable Housing Trends Report Winter 2024/2025, developed in partnership with Chandan Economics, provides insight into a pivotal multifamily sector about to embark in a new direction.
The skies surrounding commercial real estate markets are clearing, suggest the Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2025 (ETRE 2025) findings. As pandemic-related structural changes settle into place, cyclical economic trends, such as interest rates, demand, and construction levels, are now the key drivers to watch.
As more single-family rental (SFR) operators rely on build-to-rent (BTR) development to supply new inventory, construction starts have steadily risen, reaching another record high in the third quarter of 2024. SFR/BTR construction has eclipsed 92,000 units in the last four quarters — an all-time high and an annual increase of 31.4%.
As renters face a national shortage of 7 million low-income rental homes, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development’s (HUD) Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) program is pivotal in helping to close the affordability gap for renters. It is the nation’s most significant resource for affordable apartment housing construction, which gives state and local agencies approximately $10 billion in annual budget authority to issue tax credits for affordable housing development.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) announced a $3 billion boost to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s volume cap for loan purchases in 2025 to $146 billion ($73 billion for each agency). This increase in FHFA loan caps for 2025 aligns with industry expectations, given the anticipation of improving market conditions and lending activity expected in a lower interest rate environment. Next year’s cap for the Government-Sponsored Entities (GSEs) is an increase of approximately 4% from the $140 billion limit set for 2024.
The U.S. multifamily market held steady in a more normalized cycle through the first three quarters of 2024, following its skyrocketing recovery from the pandemic-related contraction. Rental demand remained strong, driven by the continued nationwide housing shortage and strong wage growth, while the high levels of new construction seen over the last two years appears to have peaked.
Small multifamily’s normalization pushed forward last quarter as the Federal Reserve made a long-awaited reduction to the target federal funds rate. Arbor’s Small Multifamily Investment Trends Report Q4 2024, developed in partnership with Chandan Economics, shows signs of stability have multiplied. Robust rental demand, a limited supply of quality affordable housing, and several other promising developments should support the subsector’s strength heading into 2025.
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Units
Knoxville
Year Built
Haven Realty Capital needed end-to-end financing for a 54-unit built-to-rent (BTR) community in Knoxville, TN. The property was unique in that its individually parceled homes did not have the types of amenities, such as a pool, gym, or clubhouse, commonly found in multifamily real estate. Haven Realty Capital was looking for an innovative and experienced lending partner who could develop a creative solution to secure permanent funding through a Government Sponsored Enterprise (GSE).
On behalf of the borrower, Arbor engaged in extensive conversations with Freddie Mac to develop an out-of-the-box solution to refinance this dedicated rental community with permanent financing. Our team had the pleasure of accompanying several senior representatives of Freddie Mac to Knoxville on a full-day tour of the property. We were delighted to see them determine that this community was a good fit for Freddie Mac multifamily financing because many of its features, including two-car garages, upscale interior design, and premium rental packages, would help attract and retain tenants.
Arbor was uniquely positioned to handle the complexities of this type of BTR transaction from start to finish. Our team was instrumental in helping Freddie Mac understand that this asset was consistent with traditional multifamily deals because it has the potential to attract quality, long-term tenants with wide-ranging amenities. Arbor created a new financing structure that allowed our borrower to purchase and lease up this community of two-story, four-bedroom, paving the way for similarly unique deals in the future. Over the years, Arbor has become one of Haven Realty Capital’s lenders of choice.