Today’s renters are in it for the long haul. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s recently released 2025 SCE Housing Survey shows that the average renter thinks there is a two-in-three chance they will rent for the foreseeable future. With home prices and interest rates unfavorable to would-be homebuyers, we explore renters’ perceptions and how they could impact future rental housing demand.
Arbor’s Top Markets for Multifamily Investment Report Spring 2025, developed in partnership with Chandan Economics, is your roadmap to the best locations to deploy capital. Based on the findings of our exclusive Multifamily Opportunity Matrix, this in-depth analysis assesses economic strength and market capabilities to navigate evolving conditions of the top 50 largest U.S. metros.
Arbor’s data-driven articles and research reports empower multifamily and single-family rental investors and developers to make more profitable financial decisions.
The number of rental households climbed nearly 2% last year, as 848,000 more households became renters, an analysis of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Housing Vacancies and Homeownership Survey shows (Chart 1). Rental households also hit a new high of 45.3 million, accounting for more than half of all U.S. household growth in 2024. Weakening affordability, evolving lifestyle preferences, and a limited supply of quality housing all contributed to surging multifamily and single-family rental (SFR) demand.
Solar panel installations, which skyrocketed in the U.S. over the last half-century, are projected to double to 10 million in just six years. While installations soared in all types of residences, owner-occupied properties significantly outpaced rentals. However, the evolving economics of solar power may be approaching a tipping point for single-family rental (SFR) operators looking for a differentiator.
Even amid ongoing economic volatility, SFR continues to be a well-positioned asset class that is expected to follow stable growth patterns.
This spring, Arbor is doubling down on our commitment to aspiring commercial real estate students through our partnership with Project Destined by helping to launch the first-ever Women’s Fellowship and with our participation in the Project Destined Bridge Program.
Amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty, the small multifamily sector remains favorably positioned for stability as the structural need for affordable housing in the U.S. has supported the strength of the sector’s demand profile.
Q: What is the Arbor Small Multifamily Price Index (ASMPI)?
A: The ASMPI estimates the average price appreciation for small multifamily properties on a quarterly basis, by comparing small multifamily cap rates and small multifamily rents.
Q: What is an index?
A: • An index starts with an assigned base, then increases or decreases with the change in value. In the case of the ASMPI, a base value of 100.0 is assigned to Q1 2000.
• For example, if the ASMPI stood at 100, then increased 5.0% during the quarter, the new value would be 105. Likewise, if the index decreased 5.0%, the new value would be 95.
• Other frequently used indices in the real estate industry include the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index and the Consumer Price Index.
Q: What is the purpose of the ASMPI?
A: • Given the lack of affordable rental housing supply to meet the robust demand, the index’s quarterly data provides insights on potential investment opportunities in the property sector.
• The index fills an important need in the marketplace for quarterly data analytics focused on small multifamily properties.
Q: How is the ASMPI calculated?
A: The ASMPI is calculated by comparing the historical relationship of cap rates on properties with primary mortgages between $1 million and $7.5 million, and the rental income earned on small multifamily properties (5 to 49 units).
Q: How do you define a “small multifamily property”?
A: For the purposes of the ASMPI, we define small multifamily properties as those which have 5 to 49 units. This is consistent with the distinctions made in the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey.
Q: How do you define a “primary mortgage” on a property?
A: A primary mortgage means that at least 50% or more of the financing on the property comes from this loan. For the purposes of the ASMPI, we use Chandan Economics’ database of loans with primary mortgages of $1 million to $7.5 million.
Q: What is the formula for calculating the ASMPI?
A: Property Valuation = Net Operating Income / Cap Rate
Q: What is a cap rate?
A: A cap rate is the annual rate of return on a property, also known as the annual yield.
Q: How do you determine the cap rates for the formula?
A: Chandan Economics tracks small multifamily cap rates through its loan database and economic models consisting of small multifamily properties with primary mortgages between $1 million and $7.5 million.
Q: How do you determine the net operating income for the formula?
A: • Operating income is calculated based on Chandan Economics’ models of annual contract rents for multifamily properties with 5 to 49 units, using data published by the U.S. Census Bureau in the American Community Survey.
• Operating income is adjusted for any vacancy losses. Other forms of property income other than direct rental income are not included as part of the model.
• An assumption in the model is that variable operating expenses are passed through to tenants.
Q: What is the methodology for the ASMPI?
A: The Arbor Small Multifamily Price Index is calculated by comparing the historical relationship of cap rates and operating income. Cap rates data are sourced from Chandan Economics’ loan database and data models consisting of properties with primary mortgages between $1 million and $7.5 million. Operating income is estimated by Chandan Economics’ models of annual rents on multifamily properties with 5 to 49 units. Primary sample data used for small multifamily rents model is sourced by the U.S. Census Bureau as part of the American Community Survey.
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