Amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty, the small multifamily sector remains favorably positioned for stability as the structural need for affordable housing in the U.S. has supported the strength of the sector’s demand profile.
Nationally, vacancies have risen, but the performance of rental housing is extremely localized. Out of the 75 largest U.S. metropolitan areas, the occupancy rate for all types of rental properties, including single-family rentals, 2-4 family, multifamily, and mobile homes, increased in 36 markets last year, while exceeding 95% in nearly one-third of all markets, according to an analysis of newly released U.S. Census Bureau data.[1] From Grand Rapids, MI, to Columbia, SC, the top markets for rental occupancy show where conditions are tightest and demand is strongest.
Arbor’s Single-Family Rental Investment Trends Report Q1 2025, published in partnership with Chandan Economics, is an up-close look at the single-family rental (SFR) sector as it enters a period of normalcy after explosive pandemic-era growth. SFR maintains its balance with the support of a healthy set of fundamentals while capital markets rebound and rent growth moderates.
Small multifamily price growth trends indicate a stabilization may be ready to take hold. Expanding on the findings of Arbor’s latest Small Multifamily Investment Trends Report, our research teams more closely examined valuations to determine if trends in pricing and other fundamentals are supporting a turnaround.
Elevated mortgage interest rates and high home prices boosted demand for single-family rentals (SFR) last year, supporting the growth of rents in almost all of the 100 largest metropolitan areas. Pricing momentum, which averaged 4.5% nationally, was concentrated in affordable markets in the Northeast and Midwest, an analysis of Zillow’s Observed Rent Index data shows.
Increasingly, single-family rental (SFR) operators have been relying on build-to-rent (BTR) development to satisfy their inventory needs. The popularity of BTR communities made economies of scale possible for the SFR sector in the recovery after the 2007 housing crisis and continues to fill a housing need nationwide. Now, newly released U.S. Census Bureau data shows that SFR development activity remained robust even as its momentum slowed, moving the sector into a more stable equilibrium.
With political headwinds reshaping the corporate responsibility landscape, commercial real estate (CRE) leaders, policymakers, and academics recently gathered in New York City for the NYU Stern Chen Institute for Global Real Estate Finance’s 3rd Annual Symposium on Innovation & Sustainable Real Estate to discuss the future of sustainable real estate finance, investment, operations, and technology. In a series of panel discussions, industry leaders offered their perspectives on how sustainability is evolving in a new political environment and why green policies still make business sense.
Rental housing remains uniquely positioned for continued growth in an environment of economic volatility and political uncertainty, Dr. Sam Chandan, founding director of the C.H. Chen Institute for Global Real Estate Finance at the NYU Stern School of Business and founder of Chandan Economics, asserts in his video overview of Arbor’s Special Report Spring 2025.
Q: What is the Arbor Small Multifamily Price Index (ASMPI)?
A: The ASMPI estimates the average price appreciation for small multifamily properties on a quarterly basis, by comparing small multifamily cap rates and small multifamily rents.
Q: What is an index?
A: • An index starts with an assigned base, then increases or decreases with the change in value. In the case of the ASMPI, a base value of 100.0 is assigned to Q1 2000.
• For example, if the ASMPI stood at 100, then increased 5.0% during the quarter, the new value would be 105. Likewise, if the index decreased 5.0%, the new value would be 95.
• Other frequently used indices in the real estate industry include the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index and the Consumer Price Index.
Q: What is the purpose of the ASMPI?
A: • Given the lack of affordable rental housing supply to meet the robust demand, the index’s quarterly data provides insights on potential investment opportunities in the property sector.
• The index fills an important need in the marketplace for quarterly data analytics focused on small multifamily properties.
Q: How is the ASMPI calculated?
A: The ASMPI is calculated by comparing the historical relationship of cap rates on properties with primary mortgages between $1 million and $7.5 million, and the rental income earned on small multifamily properties (5 to 49 units).
Q: How do you define a “small multifamily property”?
A: For the purposes of the ASMPI, we define small multifamily properties as those which have 5 to 49 units. This is consistent with the distinctions made in the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey.
Q: How do you define a “primary mortgage” on a property?
A: A primary mortgage means that at least 50% or more of the financing on the property comes from this loan. For the purposes of the ASMPI, we use Chandan Economics’ database of loans with primary mortgages of $1 million to $7.5 million.
Q: What is the formula for calculating the ASMPI?
A: Property Valuation = Net Operating Income / Cap Rate
Q: What is a cap rate?
A: A cap rate is the annual rate of return on a property, also known as the annual yield.
Q: How do you determine the cap rates for the formula?
A: Chandan Economics tracks small multifamily cap rates through its loan database and economic models consisting of small multifamily properties with primary mortgages between $1 million and $7.5 million.
Q: How do you determine the net operating income for the formula?
A: • Operating income is calculated based on Chandan Economics’ models of annual contract rents for multifamily properties with 5 to 49 units, using data published by the U.S. Census Bureau in the American Community Survey.
• Operating income is adjusted for any vacancy losses. Other forms of property income other than direct rental income are not included as part of the model.
• An assumption in the model is that variable operating expenses are passed through to tenants.
Q: What is the methodology for the ASMPI?
A: The Arbor Small Multifamily Price Index is calculated by comparing the historical relationship of cap rates and operating income. Cap rates data are sourced from Chandan Economics’ loan database and data models consisting of properties with primary mortgages between $1 million and $7.5 million. Operating income is estimated by Chandan Economics’ models of annual rents on multifamily properties with 5 to 49 units. Primary sample data used for small multifamily rents model is sourced by the U.S. Census Bureau as part of the American Community Survey.
A-427