As decelerating construction supports rent growth in many markets, newly released U.S. Census Bureau data reveals emerging trends in multifamily building permits issued and how supply dynamics are poised to impact rent pricing patterns in the nation’s top 100 markets.
The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) recently announced that new Federal Housing Administration (FHA) rules designed to boost housing production are now in effect. The new rules bring more favorable debt service coverage ratios (DSCRs), loan-to-cost ratios (LTC), and loan-to-value (LTV) ratios on certain types of FHA multifamily loans, unlocking more proceeds to borrowers.
The U.S. multifamily sector finished 2024 with the wind at its sails, as the market settled into a more normalized cycle. Rental demand continued to be driven by solid wage growth and household formation, as well as high home prices leading many would-be-homebuyers to consider lifestyle renting.
In times of volatility, it pays to have support from a team willing to go the extra mile. Whether it’s meeting tight deadlines or ensuring all requirements are met, Arbor’s Federal Housing Administration (FHA) Underwriting department remains committed to helping borrowers secure loans that expand rental housing opportunities for Americans.
The U.S. multifamily market held steady in a more normalized cycle during the third quarter of 2024. Rental demand remained strong, while new leaders emerged among the top markets for rent growth.
Networking and attending industry conferences to learn trends and insights are among the most advantageous ways young commercial real estate finance professionals can advance in their careers. This year, Gabriel Rondon, Analyst, Structured Asset Management at Arbor and a CRE Finance Council (CREFC) Young Professionals Network member, was selected as one of the network’s ambassadors at CREFC Miami, giving him a golden opportunity to expand his professional horizons.
Although the single-family rental (SFR) sector’s profile expanded after the 2007-2010 subprime mortgage crisis, the number of its households slid between 2016 and 2020 as many rentals transitioned into owner-occupied homes. Following a period of pandemic-related uncertainty, SFR has returned to growth mode, increasing its number of households for the second time in three years.
Arbor’s Special Report Spring 2025, developed in partnership with Chandan Economics, covers the state of the U.S. rental housing market on the cusp of a new cycle. After a year of steady growth, favorable trends put wind in the sector’s sails, giving rise to budding optimism. With the economic landscape shifting, the rental housing market’s resilient performance in 2023 and 2024 provides a solid foundation for continued growth.
Q: What is the Arbor Small Multifamily Price Index (ASMPI)?
A: The ASMPI estimates the average price appreciation for small multifamily properties on a quarterly basis, by comparing small multifamily cap rates and small multifamily rents.
Q: What is an index?
A: • An index starts with an assigned base, then increases or decreases with the change in value. In the case of the ASMPI, a base value of 100.0 is assigned to Q1 2000.
• For example, if the ASMPI stood at 100, then increased 5.0% during the quarter, the new value would be 105. Likewise, if the index decreased 5.0%, the new value would be 95.
• Other frequently used indices in the real estate industry include the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index and the Consumer Price Index.
Q: What is the purpose of the ASMPI?
A: • Given the lack of affordable rental housing supply to meet the robust demand, the index’s quarterly data provides insights on potential investment opportunities in the property sector.
• The index fills an important need in the marketplace for quarterly data analytics focused on small multifamily properties.
Q: How is the ASMPI calculated?
A: The ASMPI is calculated by comparing the historical relationship of cap rates on properties with primary mortgages between $1 million and $7.5 million, and the rental income earned on small multifamily properties (5 to 49 units).
Q: How do you define a “small multifamily property”?
A: For the purposes of the ASMPI, we define small multifamily properties as those which have 5 to 49 units. This is consistent with the distinctions made in the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey.
Q: How do you define a “primary mortgage” on a property?
A: A primary mortgage means that at least 50% or more of the financing on the property comes from this loan. For the purposes of the ASMPI, we use Chandan Economics’ database of loans with primary mortgages of $1 million to $7.5 million.
Q: What is the formula for calculating the ASMPI?
A: Property Valuation = Net Operating Income / Cap Rate
Q: What is a cap rate?
A: A cap rate is the annual rate of return on a property, also known as the annual yield.
Q: How do you determine the cap rates for the formula?
A: Chandan Economics tracks small multifamily cap rates through its loan database and economic models consisting of small multifamily properties with primary mortgages between $1 million and $7.5 million.
Q: How do you determine the net operating income for the formula?
A: • Operating income is calculated based on Chandan Economics’ models of annual contract rents for multifamily properties with 5 to 49 units, using data published by the U.S. Census Bureau in the American Community Survey.
• Operating income is adjusted for any vacancy losses. Other forms of property income other than direct rental income are not included as part of the model.
• An assumption in the model is that variable operating expenses are passed through to tenants.
Q: What is the methodology for the ASMPI?
A: The Arbor Small Multifamily Price Index is calculated by comparing the historical relationship of cap rates and operating income. Cap rates data are sourced from Chandan Economics’ loan database and data models consisting of properties with primary mortgages between $1 million and $7.5 million. Operating income is estimated by Chandan Economics’ models of annual rents on multifamily properties with 5 to 49 units. Primary sample data used for small multifamily rents model is sourced by the U.S. Census Bureau as part of the American Community Survey.
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