Driven by investor confidence in multifamily housing’s long-term fundamentals, the volume of debt outstanding in the sector has grown by nearly 150% since the end of the Great Recession. As this piece will detail, where investment dollars have flowed, housing demand has followed. Through an analysis of newly released U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey data, our research teams pinpoint the growing size and scope of the largest rental housing property type.
Even as the single-family rental (SFR) sector has attracted increased investor activity, the total number of SFR households has moderated due to the influence of overarching housing trends.
In this video, Dr. Sam Chandan, Founding Director of the C.H. Chen Institute for Global Real Estate Finance at the NYU Stern School of Business and non-executive chairman of Chandan Economics, discusses key takeaways from Arbor’s Affordable Housing Trends Report Fall 2023.
The pandemic-era federal and state eviction moratoriums put extreme financial pressure on many in the affordable housing sector. With that issue stabilized and with the recent drop in rates, “many borrowers are now finding that the time is now right to recapitalize or close new affordable housing loans that many borrowers had understandably delayed,” said Arthanais Williams, Managing Director of Affordable Housing at Arbor Realty Trust.
A nationwide housing shortage of rental homes, coupled with the rising costs of homeownership, has fueled the popularity of high-quality, affordable single-family rental (SFR)/build-to-rent (BTR) homes. In recent years, SFR/BTR construction starts have consistently reached new highs. In today’s economic environment, where mortgage payments are more expensive than rent payments in many markets, build-to-rent loans are a forward-thinking investment strategy.
The SFR sector is well-positioned to limit distress through the challenges of the current moment while advancing its standing within the single-family housing market for the long term.
Following a banner year in 2022, the U.S. multifamily market held steady during 2023. Arbor provided research and insights into our markets throughout the year. Here’s a look at our top Arbor research articles from 2023, in case you missed them.
Miami — a market with an attractive climate, urban amenities, and quality transportation options — has seen intense post-pandemic population growth. While its resurgence has been celebrated by many, Miami’s success has come at the cost of weakening rental affordability in the city.
From in-depth reports to impactful articles, Arbor is your source for exclusive content about key trends impacting investment within commercial real estate markets, including multifamily, single-family rentals, and affordable housing.
In this video, Dr. Sam Chandan, Founding Director of the C.H. Chen Institute for Global Real Estate Finance at the NYU Stern School of Business and non-executive chairman of Chandan Economics, details the key takeaways of Arbor’s Special Report Fall 2023, which he co-authored with Ivan Kaufman, Chairman and CEO of Arbor Realty Trust.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) announced a $10 billion rollback of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s volume cap for loan purchases for 2023 to $140 billion ($70 billion for each agency). This move aligns with industry expectations, given the anticipation of continued headwinds for the multifamily in 2024. Next year’s cap for the Government-Sponsored Entities (GSEs) is a reduction of approximately 7% from the $150 billion limit set for 2023 and a return to the level it was in 2021.
With the cost of living climbing, the need for affordable housing has become more urgent. Although demand continues to outpace available supply, multifamily investment in affordable housing is fortified by Low-Income Housing Tax Credits (LIHTC), Project-Based Section 8, and the Housing Choice Voucher (HCV) programs. Arbor’s Affordable Housing Trends Report Fall 2023, developed in partnership with Chandan Economics, examines the supply-driven programs and policies designed to improve supply at a point in time when federal gridlock has stalled many funding increases.
Multifamily rent growth in the U.S. continued to be distributed throughout a variety of markets, which contrasted with the previous two years when Sun Belt markets dominated the list.
Arbor’s Small Multifamily Investment Trends Report Q4 2023, developed in partnership with Chandan Economics, is a snapshot of a strong and resilient subsector continuing to navigate ongoing market dislocation. The report shows that distress has remained limited, even with valuations and measures of risk pricing in flux. As conditions start to stabilize, there are signs that deal activity is picking up.
The U.S. multifamily market held steady during the third quarter of 2023, as high mortgage rates and a lack of inventory in the housing market continued to drive rental demand.
Over the past year and a half, the Federal Reserve has embarked on one of its most aggressive monetary tightening cycles in history. With the federal funds rate sitting above 5.25% and two more Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meetings scheduled through the end of 2023, questions remain about how short- and medium-term monetary policy adjustments could influence multifamily investing. While a rapid reversal is unlikely, the next phase could ease some interest rate pressure.
Arbor’s Top Markets for Large Multifamily Investment Report 2023 is a roadmap for investors searching for the most desirable locations to invest $20 million or more. Developed in partnership with Chandan Economics, the study is a market-level comparison of the top 50 U.S. cities poised for apartment sector growth over the next year. This annual report pinpoints areas of opportunity at a time when economic headwinds have altered individual market dynamics.
The U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) recently published a Final Rule updating the Davis-Bacon and Related Acts’ formula for calculating local prevailing wages to keep worker pay in line with wage growth trends on most federal and federally assisted construction projects. The first update since the Reagan administration, it has met opposition from industry associations who contend its new wage determinations would raise costs and slow new construction at a time when strong wage gains have already pushed costs higher.
Although headwinds persist, solid national economic growth and the strength of multifamily fundamentals indicate it’s time to recalibrate for a soft landing, write Ivan Kaufman, Arbor’s Chairman and CEO, and Sam Chandan, Founding Director of the C.H. Chen Institute for Global Real Estate Finance at the NYU Stern School of Business. Historically stable in times of adversity, the rental housing market is well-equipped to thrive in today’s evolving economic environment.