Finance & Investment

In this video, Dr. Sam Chandan, Founding Director of the C.H. Chen Institute for Global Real Estate Finance at the NYU Stern School of Business and non-executive chairman of Chandan Economics, details the key takeaways of Arbor’s Special Report Fall 2023, which he co-authored with Ivan Kaufman, Chairman and CEO of Arbor Realty Trust.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) announced a $10 billion rollback of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s volume cap for loan purchases for 2023 to $140 billion ($70 billion for each agency). This move aligns with industry expectations, given the anticipation of continued headwinds for the multifamily in 2024. Next year’s cap for the Government-Sponsored Entities (GSEs) is a reduction of approximately 7% from the $150 billion limit set for 2023 and a return to the level it was in 2021.

With the cost of living climbing, the need for affordable housing has become more urgent. Although demand continues to outpace available supply, multifamily investment in affordable housing is fortified by Low-Income Housing Tax Credits (LIHTC), Project-Based Section 8, and the Housing Choice Voucher (HCV) programs. Arbor’s Affordable Housing Trends Report Fall 2023, developed in partnership with Chandan Economics, examines the supply-driven programs and policies designed to improve supply at a point in time when federal gridlock has stalled many funding increases.

Arbor’s Small Multifamily Investment Trends Report Q4 2023, developed in partnership with Chandan Economics, is a snapshot of a strong and resilient subsector continuing to navigate ongoing market dislocation. The report shows that distress has remained limited, even with valuations and measures of risk pricing in flux. As conditions start to stabilize, there are signs that deal activity is picking up.

Over the past year and a half, the Federal Reserve has embarked on one of its most aggressive monetary tightening cycles in history. With the federal funds rate sitting above 5.25% and two more Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meetings scheduled through the end of 2023, questions remain about how short- and medium-term monetary policy adjustments could influence multifamily investing. While a rapid reversal is unlikely, the next phase could ease some interest rate pressure.

Arbor’s Top Markets for Large Multifamily Investment Report 2023 is a roadmap for investors searching for the most desirable locations to invest $20 million or more. Developed in partnership with Chandan Economics, the study is a market-level comparison of the top 50 U.S. cities poised for apartment sector growth over the next year. This annual report pinpoints areas of opportunity at a time when economic headwinds have altered individual market dynamics.

The U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) recently published a Final Rule updating the Davis-Bacon and Related Acts’ formula for calculating local prevailing wages to keep worker pay in line with wage growth trends on most federal and federally assisted construction projects. The first update since the Reagan administration, it has met opposition from industry associations who contend its new wage determinations would raise costs and slow new construction at a time when strong wage gains have already pushed costs higher.

Although headwinds persist, solid national economic growth and the strength of multifamily fundamentals indicate it’s time to recalibrate for a soft landing, write Ivan Kaufman, Arbor’s Chairman and CEO, and Sam Chandan, Founding Director of the C.H. Chen Institute for Global Real Estate Finance at the NYU Stern School of Business. Historically stable in times of adversity, the rental housing market is well-equipped to thrive in today’s evolving economic environment.

Unless an 11th-hour agreement is reached, a Congressional impasse will trigger the first partial U.S. government shutdown in four years. Starting October 1, 2023, many non-essential federal government operations will be limited or suspended. Agency lending, however, will not be interrupted, and there is no cause for concern. Borrowers should anticipate some inconveniences, such as processing and closing delays.

From California to Maui, the frequency and scope of wildfire events are rising, causing insurance markets and public agencies to reevaluate property in areas at risk for catastrophic damage. As a result, rental housing providers are seeing greater limitations to coverage, higher premium prices, and, in some cases, a total absence of viable private insurance — a trend detailed in the NMHC 2023 State of Multifamily Risk Survey and Report. This troubling new trend has placed many rental housing operators in a bind where they must simultaneously contend with the declining availability and affordability of insurance options.