The skies surrounding commercial real estate markets are clearing, suggest the Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2025 (ETRE 2025) findings. As pandemic-related structural changes settle into place, cyclical economic trends, such as interest rates, demand, and construction levels, are now the key drivers to watch.
As more single-family rental (SFR) operators rely on build-to-rent (BTR) development to supply new inventory, construction starts have steadily risen, reaching another record high in the third quarter of 2024. SFR/BTR construction has eclipsed 92,000 units in the last four quarters — an all-time high and an annual increase of 31.4%.
As renters face a national shortage of 7 million low-income rental homes, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development’s (HUD) Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) program is pivotal in helping to close the affordability gap for renters. It is the nation’s most significant resource for affordable apartment housing construction, which gives state and local agencies approximately $10 billion in annual budget authority to issue tax credits for affordable housing development.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) announced a $3 billion boost to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s volume cap for loan purchases in 2025 to $146 billion ($73 billion for each agency). This increase in FHFA loan caps for 2025 aligns with industry expectations, given the anticipation of improving market conditions and lending activity expected in a lower interest rate environment. Next year’s cap for the Government-Sponsored Entities (GSEs) is an increase of approximately 4% from the $140 billion limit set for 2024.
The U.S. multifamily market held steady in a more normalized cycle through the first three quarters of 2024, following its skyrocketing recovery from the pandemic-related contraction. Rental demand remained strong, driven by the continued nationwide housing shortage and strong wage growth, while the high levels of new construction seen over the last two years appears to have peaked.
Small multifamily’s normalization pushed forward last quarter as the Federal Reserve made a long-awaited reduction to the target federal funds rate. Arbor’s Small Multifamily Investment Trends Report Q4 2024, developed in partnership with Chandan Economics, shows signs of stability have multiplied. Robust rental demand, a limited supply of quality affordable housing, and several other promising developments should support the subsector’s strength heading into 2025.
The U.S. multifamily market held steady in a more normalized cycle during the third quarter of 2024. Rental demand remained strong, while new leaders emerged among the top markets for rent growth.
One of the most essential factors multifamily investors need to consider before executing a transaction is the health of the local labor market. Wage growth and other trends are driven by a delicate, constantly adjusting balance of labor supply and demand. In some markets, an inflow of employers can cause wages to spike. In others, population outflows can create the same effect. In this deep dive, we expand on the data findings from the 2024 Top Markets for Multifamily Investment Report, exploring the unique conditions driving metro wage growth trends.
In April, New York State Governor Kathy Hochul announced a landmark budget agreement heralded as a giant step for affordable housing. New York’s FY 2025 Enacted Budget includes several key policy changes that could create thousands of affordable housing units across the state.
IMN’s Single Family Rental Forum (East), the cornerstone gathering of the SFR industry, concluded on May 22, 2024, in Miami, FL. Over three days, 1,800 attendees listened to more than 280 speakers discuss all angles of the SFR industry. On the first day of the conference, Arbor’s Tres Seippel, Director, Construction Management, participated in a wide-ranging panel discussion examining economic and demographic forces influencing SFR and build-to-rent (BTR), which also featured Rick Dalton, President of the Dalton Group, Domonic Purviance of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Wade McGuinn, CEO of McGuinn Hybrid Homes, and Heather Williams, VP at Willow Bridge Property Company.
The average renter thinks there is a three-in-five chance they will still be in the rental market in 2027, according to the New York Federal Reserve’s recently released 2024 SCE Housing Survey. Compared to last year, the probability of the average renter not becoming a homeowner in the next three years was up 4.3 percentage points, reaching its highest mark since the study began in 2015.
Small multifamily’s performance continues to conform to pre-pandemic norms typically seen before the historic boom years of 2021 and 2022. In the first quarter of 2024, cap rates and asset prices both improved quarter-over-quarter, Arbor’s Small Multifamily Investment Trends Report Q2 2024, developed in partnership with Chandan Economics, has found. The subsector’s fundamental strength will support steady growth amid tight credit conditions until interest rate relief invites increased investment activity.
For more than 30 years, Arbor has been committed to building strong bonds with clients that lead to mutual success. This philosophy is at the heart of a unique Arbor marketing campaign, The Art of Growing Financial Partnerships, which received two awards at the 30th Annual Financial Communications Society (FCS) Portfolio Awards Gala in New York City on May 2. The campaign, which was featured in two private jet terminals, used original stained-glass pieces to build brand awareness among high-net-worth travelers.
Even as rents retreated elsewhere, single-family rentals (SFR) have continued to outperform all other housing sub-types, exceeding the all-property type national average in 17 consecutive months through February 2024, according to Zillow’s Observed Rent Index (ZORI). Annual SFR rent growth has seen substantial gains in many metropolitan areas since national rent growth peaked in March 2022. In this deep dive, the Chandan Economics and Arbor Realty Trust research teams pinpoint the metropolitan areas where SFR rents are rising the fastest.