As housing costs spiral, rental affordability has become a more urgent issue, burdening a greater number of Americans. With more funding on the way, policymakers and private market advocates are pressing ahead with plans to add units to an increasingly tight housing market.
The U.S. multifamily market remained strong to start 2024. Now that pandemic-related migration trends have settled, a diverse group of markets has risen to the top of the rent growth list.
The average renter thinks there is a three-in-five chance they will still be in the rental market in 2027, according to the New York Federal Reserve’s recently released 2024 SCE Housing Survey. Compared to last year, the probability of the average renter not becoming a homeowner in the next three years was up 4.3 percentage points, reaching its highest mark since the study began in 2015.
Small multifamily’s performance continues to conform to pre-pandemic norms typically seen before the historic boom years of 2021 and 2022. In the first quarter of 2024, cap rates and asset prices both improved quarter-over-quarter, Arbor’s Small Multifamily Investment Trends Report Q2 2024, developed in partnership with Chandan Economics, has found. The subsector’s fundamental strength will support steady growth amid tight credit conditions until interest rate relief invites increased investment activity.
Key fundamentals of the U.S. multifamily remained strong to start 2024. Despite fears of oversupply, rent growth remained stable and vacancy rates remained near historical lows.
For more than 30 years, Arbor has been committed to building strong bonds with clients that lead to mutual success. This philosophy is at the heart of a unique Arbor marketing campaign, The Art of Growing Financial Partnerships, which received two awards at the 30th Annual Financial Communications Society (FCS) Portfolio Awards Gala in New York City on May 2. The campaign, which was featured in two private jet terminals, used original stained-glass pieces to build brand awareness among high-net-worth travelers.
Even as rents retreated elsewhere, single-family rentals (SFR) have continued to outperform all other housing sub-types, exceeding the all-property type national average in 17 consecutive months through February 2024, according to Zillow’s Observed Rent Index (ZORI). Annual SFR rent growth has seen substantial gains in many metropolitan areas since national rent growth peaked in March 2022. In this deep dive, the Chandan Economics and Arbor Realty Trust research teams pinpoint the metropolitan areas where SFR rents are rising the fastest.
Building on a commitment to developing young talent, Arbor has added another meaningful milestone to its tradition of excellence, launching the Arbor Scholarship Award Powered by Project Destined. It awards two students who embody high integrity, persistence, and a passion for a commercial real estate career with $1,000 and provides mentorship from Arbor executives.
Although headwinds persist, solid national economic growth and the strength of multifamily fundamentals indicate it’s time to recalibrate for a soft landing, write Ivan Kaufman, Arbor’s Chairman and CEO, and Sam Chandan, Founding Director of the C.H. Chen Institute for Global Real Estate Finance at the NYU Stern School of Business. Historically stable in times of adversity, the rental housing market is well-equipped to thrive in today’s evolving economic environment.
From California to Maui, the frequency and scope of wildfire events are rising, causing insurance markets and public agencies to reevaluate property in areas at risk for catastrophic damage. As a result, rental housing providers are seeing greater limitations to coverage, higher premium prices, and, in some cases, a total absence of viable private insurance — a trend detailed in the NMHC 2023 State of Multifamily Risk Survey and Report. This troubling new trend has placed many rental housing operators in a bind where they must simultaneously contend with the declining availability and affordability of insurance options.
More than halfway through 2023, the single-family rental (SFR) sector continues to demonstrate why it deserves the attention of multifamily investors.
While the single-family rental (SFR) sector’s rent growth averages have retreated from record highs, structural tailwinds are keeping price growth positive — both nationally and in major SFR markets. In this research brief, Chandan Economics and Arbor Realty Trust analyze DBRS Morningstar data, which covers the top 20 MSAs by SFR activity, to discover the metropolitan areas where SFR rent growth is the hottest right now.
While macroeconomic headwinds may not recede soon, tenant dependability, the core strength of small multifamily, has proven to be a powerful antidote to financial market storms.
As Baby Boomers reach retirement age, their evolving geographic preferences are strengthening housing markets and local economies in new locations, which feature attractive climates, relative affordability, and ample outdoor activities. With swelling populations of senior citizens, our top five emerging metropolitan areas for retiree relocation are fertile ground for multifamily real estate investment.