As the interest rate outlook brightens, unique opportunities for outsized returns abound, Dr. Sam Chandan, Founding Director of the C.H. Chen Institute for Global Real Estate Finance at the NYU Stern School of Business and the Non-Executive Chairman of Chandan Economics, explains in this top-level overview of Arbor’s latest Special Report.
Continually challenged by low inventory, affordable housing sits at a crossroads following the 2024 election. Incoming leadership plans to introduce market-based principles to an agenda that may also include an expanded Housing Choice Voucher program. Arbor’s Affordable Housing Trends Report Winter 2024/2025, developed in partnership with Chandan Economics, provides insight into a pivotal multifamily sector about to embark in a new direction.
The skies surrounding commercial real estate markets are clearing, suggest the Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2025 (ETRE 2025) findings. As pandemic-related structural changes settle into place, cyclical economic trends, such as interest rates, demand, and construction levels, are now the key drivers to watch.
As more single-family rental (SFR) operators rely on build-to-rent (BTR) development to supply new inventory, construction starts have steadily risen, reaching another record high in the third quarter of 2024. SFR/BTR construction has eclipsed 92,000 units in the last four quarters — an all-time high and an annual increase of 31.4%.
As renters face a national shortage of 7 million low-income rental homes, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development’s (HUD) Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) program is pivotal in helping to close the affordability gap for renters. It is the nation’s most significant resource for affordable apartment housing construction, which gives state and local agencies approximately $10 billion in annual budget authority to issue tax credits for affordable housing development.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) announced a $3 billion boost to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s volume cap for loan purchases in 2025 to $146 billion ($73 billion for each agency). This increase in FHFA loan caps for 2025 aligns with industry expectations, given the anticipation of improving market conditions and lending activity expected in a lower interest rate environment. Next year’s cap for the Government-Sponsored Entities (GSEs) is an increase of approximately 4% from the $140 billion limit set for 2024.
The U.S. multifamily market held steady in a more normalized cycle through the first three quarters of 2024, following its skyrocketing recovery from the pandemic-related contraction. Rental demand remained strong, driven by the continued nationwide housing shortage and strong wage growth, while the high levels of new construction seen over the last two years appears to have peaked.
Small multifamily’s normalization pushed forward last quarter as the Federal Reserve made a long-awaited reduction to the target federal funds rate. Arbor’s Small Multifamily Investment Trends Report Q4 2024, developed in partnership with Chandan Economics, shows signs of stability have multiplied. Robust rental demand, a limited supply of quality affordable housing, and several other promising developments should support the subsector’s strength heading into 2025.
Arbor remains committed to the responsible environmental management of our operations. We are always striving to improve upon the ways in which we can minimize the impact that our business has on the environment. This exploration involves an analysis of our workspaces and business practices, our vendor and counterparty practices, and the carbon footprint of our lending practices. We believe that the key to keeping our focus on sustainability is an ongoing investment in our people, continuous and broad-based education, and a flexible approach to our policies and processes.
Arbor has continued its domestic and international tree planting program, aimed at supporting two highly successful reforestation efforts through a commitment to plant a tree on behalf of Arbor’s customers for each loan we close. This initiative provides a valuable opportunity to connect with our clients while actively contributing to a critically important environmental cause. To date, in recognition of our closed transactions, and our commitment to these critical organizations, Arbor has financed the planting of 17,000 trees domestically and 3,400 trees in the State of Israel.
In its workspaces across the United States, Arbor has installed low-flow water systems in bathrooms, energy-efficient LED lighting, daylight and occupancy sensors in all new office buildouts and retrofits, and hands-free faucets. All equipment is set to energy reduction modes, including computer and copier equipment, allowing for “rest” during non-peak hours and double-sided copying is encouraged. Arbor shows preference to green leased buildings for one-off offices and purchases energy star appliances when available.
Arbor maintains effective recycling processes (supplies, electronics, paper files), where available, to increase landfill diversion and to be in compliance with all building rules and regulations.
In its workspaces across the United States, Arbor has installed low-flow water systems in bathrooms, energy-efficient LED lighting, daylight and occupancy sensors in all new office buildouts and retrofits, and hands-free faucets. All equipment is set to energy reduction modes, including computer and copier equipment, allowing for “rest” during non-peak hours and double-sided copying is encouraged. Arbor shows preference to green leased buildings for one-off offices and purchases energy star appliances when available.
Arbor currently has a robust telecommuting policy greatly reducing our employees’ use of fossil fuels, supports video conferencing and conference calling as an alternative to travel, utilizes e-signature and electronic invoices and statements, and encourages digital-only subscriptions and eco-friendly packaging solutions. We have also begun investigating our scope 1, 2, and 3 carbon footprint to see where we can be more mindful and impactful in our efforts and business operations.
Arbor is in full compliance with environmental regulations in all of its office locations and requires the same of the properties on which it lends.