Continually challenged by low inventory, affordable housing sits at a crossroads following the 2024 election. Incoming leadership plans to introduce market-based principles to an agenda that may also include an expanded Housing Choice Voucher program. Arbor’s Affordable Housing Trends Report Winter 2024/2025, developed in partnership with Chandan Economics, provides insight into a pivotal multifamily sector about to embark in a new direction.
The skies surrounding commercial real estate markets are clearing, suggest the Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2025 (ETRE 2025) findings. As pandemic-related structural changes settle into place, cyclical economic trends, such as interest rates, demand, and construction levels, are now the key drivers to watch.
As more single-family rental (SFR) operators rely on build-to-rent (BTR) development to supply new inventory, construction starts have steadily risen, reaching another record high in the third quarter of 2024. SFR/BTR construction has eclipsed 92,000 units in the last four quarters — an all-time high and an annual increase of 31.4%.
As renters face a national shortage of 7 million low-income rental homes, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development’s (HUD) Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) program is pivotal in helping to close the affordability gap for renters. It is the nation’s most significant resource for affordable apartment housing construction, which gives state and local agencies approximately $10 billion in annual budget authority to issue tax credits for affordable housing development.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) announced a $3 billion boost to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s volume cap for loan purchases in 2025 to $146 billion ($73 billion for each agency). This increase in FHFA loan caps for 2025 aligns with industry expectations, given the anticipation of improving market conditions and lending activity expected in a lower interest rate environment. Next year’s cap for the Government-Sponsored Entities (GSEs) is an increase of approximately 4% from the $140 billion limit set for 2024.
The U.S. multifamily market held steady in a more normalized cycle through the first three quarters of 2024, following its skyrocketing recovery from the pandemic-related contraction. Rental demand remained strong, driven by the continued nationwide housing shortage and strong wage growth, while the high levels of new construction seen over the last two years appears to have peaked.
Small multifamily’s normalization pushed forward last quarter as the Federal Reserve made a long-awaited reduction to the target federal funds rate. Arbor’s Small Multifamily Investment Trends Report Q4 2024, developed in partnership with Chandan Economics, shows signs of stability have multiplied. Robust rental demand, a limited supply of quality affordable housing, and several other promising developments should support the subsector’s strength heading into 2025.
The U.S. multifamily market held steady in a more normalized cycle during the third quarter of 2024. Rental demand remained strong, while new leaders emerged among the top markets for rent growth.
Mr. York joined Arbor in 2005 and quickly became Arbor’s Top Producer year after year. He serves a client base that includes some of the largest multifamily owners, investors, and brokerage firms in the nation. In 2015, he was named one of Commercial Observer’s “Top 25 Debt Brokers and Lenders Under 35.” Since 2020, Mr. York has cemented himself as Arbor’s Top Producer and has closed over $11 Billion in transactions over the past four years alone. Stephen specializes in bespoke debt and equity financing solutions, with a primary focus on Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, FHA, Bridge, CMBS, and other special-situation financing products.
Mr. York joined Arbor in 2005 and quickly became Arbor’s Top Producer year after year. He serves a client base that includes some of the largest multifamily owners, investors, and brokerage firms in the nation. In 2015, he was named one of Commercial Observer’s “Top 25 Debt Brokers and Lenders Under 35.” Since 2020, Mr. York has cemented himself as Arbor’s Top Producer and has closed over $11 Billion in transactions over the past four years alone. Stephen specializes in bespoke debt and equity financing solutions, with a primary focus on Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, FHA, Bridge, CMBS, and other special-situation financing products.
Brooklyn, NY | FNMA | $33M
Pfugerville, TX | FNMA | $38M
West Palm Beach, FL | Freddie Mac | $33M
Kissimmee, FL | Freddie Mac | $46M
Tampa, FL | Freddie Mac | $61M
Brooklyn, NY | Arbor Private Investment Preferred Equity Bridge | $53M
San Antonio, TX | Bridge | $61M
Suitland, MD | Bridge | $152M
San Antonio, TX | Bridge | $27M
Rolling Meadows, IL | Bridge | $102M
Farmington Hills, MI | Bridge | $104M
Richmond, VA | Bridge | $119M
Brooklyn, NY | Freddie Mac SBL | $5M
New Britain, CT | Fannie Mae Small Loan | $7M
