As the interest rate outlook brightens, unique opportunities for outsized returns abound, Dr. Sam Chandan, Founding Director of the C.H. Chen Institute for Global Real Estate Finance at the NYU Stern School of Business and the Non-Executive Chairman of Chandan Economics, explains in this top-level overview of Arbor’s latest Special Report.
Continually challenged by low inventory, affordable housing sits at a crossroads following the 2024 election. Incoming leadership plans to introduce market-based principles to an agenda that may also include an expanded Housing Choice Voucher program. Arbor’s Affordable Housing Trends Report Winter 2024/2025, developed in partnership with Chandan Economics, provides insight into a pivotal multifamily sector about to embark in a new direction.
The skies surrounding commercial real estate markets are clearing, suggest the Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2025 (ETRE 2025) findings. As pandemic-related structural changes settle into place, cyclical economic trends, such as interest rates, demand, and construction levels, are now the key drivers to watch.
As more single-family rental (SFR) operators rely on build-to-rent (BTR) development to supply new inventory, construction starts have steadily risen, reaching another record high in the third quarter of 2024. SFR/BTR construction has eclipsed 92,000 units in the last four quarters — an all-time high and an annual increase of 31.4%.
As renters face a national shortage of 7 million low-income rental homes, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development’s (HUD) Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) program is pivotal in helping to close the affordability gap for renters. It is the nation’s most significant resource for affordable apartment housing construction, which gives state and local agencies approximately $10 billion in annual budget authority to issue tax credits for affordable housing development.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) announced a $3 billion boost to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s volume cap for loan purchases in 2025 to $146 billion ($73 billion for each agency). This increase in FHFA loan caps for 2025 aligns with industry expectations, given the anticipation of improving market conditions and lending activity expected in a lower interest rate environment. Next year’s cap for the Government-Sponsored Entities (GSEs) is an increase of approximately 4% from the $140 billion limit set for 2024.
The U.S. multifamily market held steady in a more normalized cycle through the first three quarters of 2024, following its skyrocketing recovery from the pandemic-related contraction. Rental demand remained strong, driven by the continued nationwide housing shortage and strong wage growth, while the high levels of new construction seen over the last two years appears to have peaked.
Small multifamily’s normalization pushed forward last quarter as the Federal Reserve made a long-awaited reduction to the target federal funds rate. Arbor’s Small Multifamily Investment Trends Report Q4 2024, developed in partnership with Chandan Economics, shows signs of stability have multiplied. Robust rental demand, a limited supply of quality affordable housing, and several other promising developments should support the subsector’s strength heading into 2025.
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Units
St. Louis
Year Built
Experienced multifamily owners were looking for a refinance on a 314-unit apartment community located in the St. Louis metro area. The sponsors originally built the property in two phases, in 2003 and 2009, as a condo development. However, due to softening in the condo market, a portion of the unsold units were operated as multifamily. The sponsors bought back the sold condo units in 2018 to operate the whole community as multifamily rentals.
Arbor assisted the sponsors with securing a bridge loan in 2019 for the completion of renovations and stabilization of the property, which was only at half occupancy at the time. As of June 2020, the property reached over 90% occupancy and the borrowers were ready to refinance due to the increased value of the asset. The borrowers have a long-term relationship with Arbor and Fannie Mae, so they were comfortable working with Arbor to secure the right financing for their investment needs.
Arbor’s underwriting and originations departments were tasked with demonstrating the sponsors’ continued commitment to the property. Arbor was able to point to the borrowers’ nearly two decades of ownership, local market expertise and investment in improving the asset’s quality and occupancy, which helped support the agency requirement that the borrower possess strong experience and a proven track record.
Arbor executed a 15-year fixed-rate loan under the Fannie Mae DUS® loan program. As a result of the transaction, the borrowers were able to refinance at a low interest rate.