Alongside our award-winning work, Arbor Realty Trust’s nationwide staff consistently gives back to the communities where we live and work. This fall, several of our teams rolled up their sleeves to assist Habitat for Humanity chapters in Miami and Boston with housing initiatives that are making a difference locally.
Rental housing’s long-term investment outlook remains head and shoulders above its peers, driven by structural supply constraints and steady demand growth, finds the 2026 Emerging Trends in Real Estate report. Explore this trend and other key takeaways from the 47th edition of Urban Land Institute (ULI) and PwC’s influential industry report.
Small multifamily assets have begun to settle into a consistent pattern of growth following two years of price corrections. Building on the findings of Arbor Realty Trust’s Small Multifamily Investment Trends Report Q4 2025, our research teams look more closely at recent pricing trends and the factors driving the turnaround.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) announced a $30 billion boost to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s volume cap for loan purchases in 2026 to $176 billion ($88 billion for each agency). This increase in FHFA loan caps for 2026 aligns with industry expectations, given the anticipation of improving market conditions and lending activity expected in a lower interest rate environment. Next year’s cap for the Government-Sponsored Entities (GSEs) is an increase of approximately 20% from the $146 billion limit set for 2025.
As the cost of living in the U.S. climbs, the shortage of affordable housing is a persistent challenge for many communities. While progress has been uneven to date, Arbor Realty Trust and Chandan Economics document federal and state initiatives aimed at creating positive change. In a sector known for its strength, stability, and consistency, new and old affordable housing opportunities are converging as the nation accelerates construction.
FRDDIE MAC® Conventional Forwards Arbor’s Freddie Mac® Conventional Forwards encourage the creation of new housing supply by providing takeout certainty to developers and construction lenders, helping to address long-term supply shortages that limit affordability and housing choice. In an evolving multifamily lending environment, our Conventional Forwards provide clarity to the terms of the permanent debt needed when a property stabilizes after new construction or major rehabilitation.
As has been the case throughout this cycle, the top rent growth markets over the past 12 months represented several regions, all with varying strengths and characteristics.
Arbor Realty Trust’s Small Multifamily Investment Trends Report Q4 2025, developed in partnership with Chandan Economics, outlines the long-term positives reinforcing the sector’s growth amid macroeconomic uncertainty. With capital market activity poised to increase, small multifamily’s healthy fundamentals position it to trend higher in the next cycle.
Q: What is the Arbor Small Multifamily Price Index (ASMPI)?
A: The ASMPI estimates the average price appreciation for small multifamily properties on a quarterly basis, by comparing small multifamily cap rates and small multifamily rents.
Q: What is an index?
A: • An index starts with an assigned base, then increases or decreases with the change in value. In the case of the ASMPI, a base value of 100.0 is assigned to Q1 2000.
• For example, if the ASMPI stood at 100, then increased 5.0% during the quarter, the new value would be 105. Likewise, if the index decreased 5.0%, the new value would be 95.
• Other frequently used indices in the real estate industry include the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index and the Consumer Price Index.
Q: What is the purpose of the ASMPI?
A: • Given the lack of affordable rental housing supply to meet the robust demand, the index’s quarterly data provides insights on potential investment opportunities in the property sector.
• The index fills an important need in the marketplace for quarterly data analytics focused on small multifamily properties.
Q: How is the ASMPI calculated?
A: The ASMPI is calculated by comparing the historical relationship of cap rates on properties with primary mortgages between $1 million and $7.5 million, and the rental income earned on small multifamily properties (5 to 49 units).
Q: How do you define a “small multifamily property”?
A: For the purposes of the ASMPI, we define small multifamily properties as those which have 5 to 49 units. This is consistent with the distinctions made in the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey.
Q: How do you define a “primary mortgage” on a property?
A: A primary mortgage means that at least 50% or more of the financing on the property comes from this loan. For the purposes of the ASMPI, we use Chandan Economics’ database of loans with primary mortgages of $1 million to $7.5 million.
Q: What is the formula for calculating the ASMPI?
A: Property Valuation = Net Operating Income / Cap Rate
Q: What is a cap rate?
A: A cap rate is the annual rate of return on a property, also known as the annual yield.
Q: How do you determine the cap rates for the formula?
A: Chandan Economics tracks small multifamily cap rates through its loan database and economic models consisting of small multifamily properties with primary mortgages between $1 million and $7.5 million.
Q: How do you determine the net operating income for the formula?
A: • Operating income is calculated based on Chandan Economics’ models of annual contract rents for multifamily properties with 5 to 49 units, using data published by the U.S. Census Bureau in the American Community Survey.
• Operating income is adjusted for any vacancy losses. Other forms of property income other than direct rental income are not included as part of the model.
• An assumption in the model is that variable operating expenses are passed through to tenants.
Q: What is the methodology for the ASMPI?
A: The Arbor Small Multifamily Price Index is calculated by comparing the historical relationship of cap rates and operating income. Cap rates data are sourced from Chandan Economics’ loan database and data models consisting of properties with primary mortgages between $1 million and $7.5 million. Operating income is estimated by Chandan Economics’ models of annual rents on multifamily properties with 5 to 49 units. Primary sample data used for small multifamily rents model is sourced by the U.S. Census Bureau as part of the American Community Survey.
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