Continually challenged by low inventory, affordable housing sits at a crossroads following the 2024 election. Incoming leadership plans to introduce market-based principles to an agenda that may also include an expanded Housing Choice Voucher program. Arbor’s Affordable Housing Trends Report Winter 2024/2025, developed in partnership with Chandan Economics, provides insight into a pivotal multifamily sector about to embark in a new direction.
The skies surrounding commercial real estate markets are clearing, suggest the Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2025 (ETRE 2025) findings. As pandemic-related structural changes settle into place, cyclical economic trends, such as interest rates, demand, and construction levels, are now the key drivers to watch.
As more single-family rental (SFR) operators rely on build-to-rent (BTR) development to supply new inventory, construction starts have steadily risen, reaching another record high in the third quarter of 2024. SFR/BTR construction has eclipsed 92,000 units in the last four quarters — an all-time high and an annual increase of 31.4%.
As renters face a national shortage of 7 million low-income rental homes, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development’s (HUD) Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) program is pivotal in helping to close the affordability gap for renters. It is the nation’s most significant resource for affordable apartment housing construction, which gives state and local agencies approximately $10 billion in annual budget authority to issue tax credits for affordable housing development.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) announced a $3 billion boost to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s volume cap for loan purchases in 2025 to $146 billion ($73 billion for each agency). This increase in FHFA loan caps for 2025 aligns with industry expectations, given the anticipation of improving market conditions and lending activity expected in a lower interest rate environment. Next year’s cap for the Government-Sponsored Entities (GSEs) is an increase of approximately 4% from the $140 billion limit set for 2024.
The U.S. multifamily market held steady in a more normalized cycle through the first three quarters of 2024, following its skyrocketing recovery from the pandemic-related contraction. Rental demand remained strong, driven by the continued nationwide housing shortage and strong wage growth, while the high levels of new construction seen over the last two years appears to have peaked.
Small multifamily’s normalization pushed forward last quarter as the Federal Reserve made a long-awaited reduction to the target federal funds rate. Arbor’s Small Multifamily Investment Trends Report Q4 2024, developed in partnership with Chandan Economics, shows signs of stability have multiplied. Robust rental demand, a limited supply of quality affordable housing, and several other promising developments should support the subsector’s strength heading into 2025.
The U.S. multifamily market held steady in a more normalized cycle during the third quarter of 2024. Rental demand remained strong, while new leaders emerged among the top markets for rent growth.
Small multifamily’s normalization pushed forward last quarter as the Federal Reserve made a long-awaited reduction to the target federal funds rate. Arbor’s Small Multifamily Investment Trends Report Q4 2024, developed in partnership with Chandan Economics, shows signs of stability have multiplied. Robust rental demand, a limited supply of quality affordable housing, and several other promising developments should support the subsector’s strength heading into 2025.
One of the most essential factors multifamily investors need to consider before executing a transaction is the health of the local labor market. Wage growth and other trends are driven by a delicate, constantly adjusting balance of labor supply and demand. In some markets, an inflow of employers can cause wages to spike. In others, population outflows can create the same effect. In this deep dive, we expand on the data findings from the 2024 Top Markets for Multifamily Investment Report, exploring the unique conditions driving metro wage growth trends.
With interest rate pressure easing, quality multifamily investment opportunities have emerged from coast to coast, making identifying the optimal location essential. A roadmap for investors, Top Markets for Multifamily Investment Report 2024, developed in partnership with Chandan Economics, ranks the top 50 metropolitan markets found through an analysis of 10 key factors, including affordability, population growth, and climate risk.
Small multifamily properties play a crucial role in providing affordable and market-rate rental housing across the country. But Arbor and Freddie Mac understood that financing in this sector had historically been fragmented when we partnered to create the Small Balance Loan (SBL) program in 2014. As the program celebrates its 10th anniversary in 2024, Arbor is proud to have helped pioneer the product to meet a critical need for our borrowers. A six-time Top Small Balance Loans Lender, Arbor has the right experience to expertly customize loan products and align your asset’s long-term goals with your community’s needs.
For undergraduate students nationwide, apartments fill the gap in campus housing. Off-campus housing offers a better value proposition in many markets, giving students more space at a competitive price. In other markets, students pursue apartments due to insufficient dormitory space. As colleges and universities acquire and build to keep pace with enrollment, the supply-demand imbalance has created new opportunities for multifamily real estate investment.
Even with the market in flux, opportunities continue emerging for well-positioned investors. Historically, some of the best multifamily deals were closed in down cycles or during the upswing to normalcy. Arbor’s Special Report Fall 2024 details why the current economic climate is ripe for investment.
Following strong post-pandemic gains, the U.S. labor market has cooled over the past few months, placing multifamily investors in a position to realize the benefits of less restrictive monetary policy.
The single-family rental (SFR) sector’s performance surged again last quarter, demonstrating its ability to thrive in all economic cycles. SFR construction continued its record-breaking ascent as CMBS activity blossomed. Arbor’s Single-Family Rental Investment Trends Report Q3 2024, developed in partnership with Chandan Economics, examines the sector’s fundamentals as would-be homeowners weigh the rent-vs-buy calculation.
Did you know that at the same time many renters navigate a housing market with limited affordable options, new apartment development continues to be held back by World War II-era zoning restrictions? In many localities, regulations introduced in the mid-1940s have choked the multifamily pipeline for decades, creating a “missing middle” that leaves low-income renters in a lurch.
Increasingly, single-family rental (SFR) operators have been relying on build-to-rent (BTR) development to bridge the housing gap, accelerating the momentum of SFR construction through 2024’s halfway point. Both total SFR/BTR housing starts and BTR’s share of all single-family housing starts reached new record highs in the second quarter, setting the stage for another banner year.