Finance & Investment

Arbor Chairman and CEO Ivan Kaufman kicked off the first full day of eCore22 in Miami this November with an informative and intimate panel discussion, featuring Charles Ostroff, SVP Multifamily Chief Credit Officer at Fannie Mae, Robert Verrone, Principal at Iron Hound Management Company, and Aaron Kurlansky, Principal at Sheridan Capital, that covered the most pressing economic issues of the moment.

The highly anticipated transition from LIBOR® to SOFR, which goes into effect after June 30, 2023, will make SOFR the standard benchmark rate across a wide range of financial products. Although the financial community is expecting a smooth transition, there are notable differences between the two rates that will influence multifamily lending.

In the last quarter of 2022, the multifamily sector continues to thrive despite ongoing economic uncertainty. As the investment community looks ahead to 2023, Arbor’s Managing Director, Senior Production Officer Jean-Laurent Pouliot discusses what’s in store for multifamily and how Arbor is positioned to help investors continue to exceed expectations next year.

With the latest release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), policymakers and consumers alike found signs of inflation relief for the first time in a long time. Despite the CPI’s overall improvement in October, one notable price category is still seeing rising inflation: rent of primary residence. The annual growth rate for the rent component of the CPI has now increased for 15 consecutive months.

The single-family rental (SFR) market maintained a favorable outlook in the third quarter of 2022 as the national housing market began cooling. Amid economic headwinds, SFR is well-positioned as a primary alternative for would-be homebuyers priced out of ownership in today’s high-interest-rate housing market.

With investors now seeking inflation protection, the small multifamily sector continues to see gains. Arbor’s new quarterly Small Multifamily Investment Trends Report, published in partnership with Chandan Economics, sheds light on key trends, including firm cap rates, climbing valuations, and elevated originations, despite tightening underwriting standards.

When Americans go to the ballot box on November 8, the congressional map will look slightly different than it has for the past decade. Six states picked up seats in the House of Representatives: Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, Texas, and Oregon. The results of the last five years (2018-2022) of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey ASEC explore the reasons households provided for moving to those states that will be gaining more representation in Washington, D.C.

All of the top 50 metropolitan areas in the U.S. registered unemployment rate improvements during the 12 months ending in August 2022. Los Angeles led the country with the largest decline in its unemployment rate, shaving off 3.7 percentage points from one year ago. Riverside (-3.3%), Detroit (-3.2%), San Diego (-3.1%), and Sacramento (-2.8%) all followed closely behind with sizable declines.

The increased frequency of major hurricanes brings into question whether robust in-migration patterns will hold in the face of growing climate risks. While there is a growing concern that the increase in extreme weather events could dampen housing demand in at-risk or effected areas, history displays a different pattern.

Arbor’s Affordable Housing Trends Report Fall 2022, developed in partnership with Chandan Economics, examines the affordable housing market’s growth trajectory in a challenging economic climate. It examines key programs, including the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) and the Housing Choice Voucher (HCV), likely to influence the market’s performance in the coming year.