Despite a national slowdown, population growth remained concentrated in a small group of states in 2025, where strong net domestic migration inflows, economic opportunity, and in some cases elevated birth rates drove the annual increases. Overall, 14 states had an annual population growth rate above 0.75%, while 12 states had less than 0.1%, according to a Chandan Economics analysis of the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2024 American Community Survey.
Build-to-rent (BTR), a compelling solution to the U.S. housing market’s evolving needs, is experiencing record growth. BTR accounted for 8% of all single-family rental (SFR) construction starts in the 12 months that ended in the first quarter of 2024, according to Arbor’s Single-Family Rental Investment Trends Report Q2 2024. As the need for quality rental units remains high, borrowers have much to gain from partnering with an experienced lender who specializes in build-to-rent financing.
Out of the 75 largest U.S. metropolitan areas, occupancy rates for all types of rental properties, including multifamily and single-family rentals (SFR), remained exceptionally high in 2025.
National rent growth in the single-family rental (SFR) sector remained strong and consistent in 2025 as market-level pricing momentum was broad-based and robust, according to an analysis of newly released data from the Zillow Observed Rent Index. Year-end annual rent gains averaged 2.9%, down from 4.1% in 2024, marking the most modest increase since 2015. But even as the intensity of SFR rent growth abated last year, its reach was extensive, with 98 of the 100 largest markets posting year-over-year gains.
Arbor Realty Trust’s Small Multifamily Investment Trends Report Q1 2026, developed in partnership with Chandan Economics, shows that lending activity in the sector increased for the second consecutive year amid a sharp increase in refinancings. Even with persistently high interest rates and rigorous underwriting standards, small multifamily entered the first quarter on steady footing.
Over the past 12 months, the leading rent growth markets spanned multiple regions, each exhibiting distinct strengths and characteristics.
Multifamily cap rates remain stable nationally, even as regional pricing diverged through the end of last year. While some regions saw compression and others late-stage repricing, regional cap rates show less variation as affordability-driven migration and capital reallocation compressed yield gaps.
The U.S. multifamily market finished 2025 with growing optimism and resilience. Investment volume accelerated to a three-year high, bolstered by greater interest rate clarity and the tightest cap rates across major real estate sectors.
Ever since the Federal Reserve increased short-term interest rates in the waning days of 2018, the conversation has shifted from when will rates rise again to will the Fed have to lower rates?
Markets currently peg the probability of at least one rate cut in 2019 at about even odds. However, this does not mean a downturn is imminent. By several measures, the economy is performing at its highest capacity of any point since before the financial crisis.
Whether a period of economic weakness is years away or just around the corner, the small balance multifamily sector is projected to remain healthy.
For more on the small balance multifamily sector, read Arbor Chatter’s “Q1 2019 Small Balance Multifamily Investment Trends Report.”
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