Arbor’s Special Report Spring 2025, developed in partnership with Chandan Economics, covers the state of the U.S. rental housing market on the cusp of a new cycle. After a year of steady growth, favorable trends put wind in the sector’s sails, giving rise to budding optimism. With the economic landscape shifting, the rental housing market’s resilient performance in 2023 and 2024 provides a solid foundation for continued growth.
Continually challenged by low inventory, affordable housing sits at a crossroads following the 2024 election. Incoming leadership plans to introduce market-based principles to an agenda that may also include an expanded Housing Choice Voucher program.
A loan closing is only the beginning of the borrower-lender relationship. Partnering with a lifecycle lender that also services its loans gives borrowers continuity from origination through servicing. Throughout the life of the loan, borrowers can benefit from in-house commercial loan servicers’ tailored solutions and superior customer service, which are hallmarks of a strong long-term partnership.
Four in 10 renters in large multifamily apartment communities do not envision homeownership as a part of their American Dream, a survey by Entrata recently found. Instead, lifestyle renters opt for newly constructed, high-quality rental housing with many of the typical amenities of homeownership without its traditional downsides.
The structural strengths of the single-family rentals sector far outweigh cyclical headwinds as it remains well-positioned to build on its momentum in 2025 and beyond.
Multifamily households reached a new high for the third consecutive year in 2023, extending a growth spurt that began after the 2008 housing crisis. With strong tailwinds at its back, multifamily’s latest record may not stand for very long.
The U.S. multifamily market held steady in a more normalized cycle during 2024, following the pandemic-related economic contraction and its rapid recovery. Rental demand remained strong, driven by the ongoing nationwide housing shortage and robust wage growth, as younger generations continued to embrace lifestyle renting.
Unless an 11th-hour agreement is reached, an impasse will trigger the first U.S. government shutdown since 2019. Starting December 21, 2024, many non-essential federal government operations will be limited or suspended, but most multifamily financing activities will not be disrupted.
from Arbor & Chandan Economics
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A biannual economic analysis and accompanying commentary
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Recalibrating Amid Uncertainty By Ivan Kaufman and Sam Chandan Key Findings Despite a slowdown in new investment, the macro economy has outperformed expectations in 2023, indicating a soft landing is more likely. A yield curve normalization could place additional upward pressure on long-term interest rates and cap rates into 2024.