Arbor’s latest Single-Family Rental Investment Trends Report highlights how this commercial real estate sector performed resiliently in the face of adversity last quarter. Even as policy uncertainty created new headwinds, firm operating fundamentals drove SFR forward.
Build-to-rent (BTR) development remained resilient in a complicated operating environment last quarter as production continued to normalize, according to newly released U.S. Census Bureau data. Despite political uncertainty, higher capital costs, and other headwinds, BTR maintained a historically high share of new single-family construction.
The small multifamily sector entered the second half of 2026 demonstrating strength and stability as capital markets remained selective.
While national multifamily permitting stabilizes, the authorization of new apartment buildings with five or more units has become more heavily concentrated in smaller, rapidly growing metropolitan areas. From Durham, NC, to Fayetteville, AR, and Raleigh, NC, new U.S. Census Bureau data reveal where multifamily permitting was most concentrated and where it was accelerating fastest in the first half of 2026.
Small multifamily lending activity rose during the first half of 2026. According to the latest Small Multifamily Investment Trends Report from Arbor Realty Trust and Chandan Economics, originations on loans with original balances between $1 million and $9 million reached an annualized pace of $71.6 billion through the second quarter. At this pace, originations are running 2.8% above the $69.6 billion total for 2025, placing small multifamily on pace for a third consecutive annual increase.
Arbor Realty Trust’s latest Small Multifamily Investment Trends Report, developed in partnership with Chandan Economics, evaluates what’s driving this sector’s ongoing stability as macroeconomic conditions remain mixed. Loan originations rose last quarter, and valuations are rebounding, signaling that normalization is taking hold.
Single-family rental (SFR) conditions strengthened during the first half of 2026, with rents rising across all 50 of the nation’s largest metros between December 2025 and June 2026. Growth was broad-based but uneven, with many Northeast and Midwest markets outperforming major Sun Belt metros.
Arbor’s summer internship program is a key part of our ongoing initiative to nurture talent and shape future leaders through programs, such as Fannie Mae’s DUS Summer Series, and networking opportunities.
from Arbor & Chandan Economics
A biannual economic analysis and accompanying commentary
from Arbor’s Chairman and CEO Ivan Kaufman and Chandan Economics Founder Sam
Chandan. This special series provides unparalleled insight into the housing market
from two of the industry’s foremost thought leaders.
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Recalibrating Amid Uncertainty By Ivan Kaufman and Sam Chandan Key Findings Despite a slowdown in new investment, the macro economy has outperformed expectations in 2023, indicating a soft landing is more likely. A yield curve normalization could place additional upward pressure on long-term interest rates and cap rates into 2024.
Recalibrating Amid Uncertainty By Ivan Kaufman and Sam Chandan Key Findings Despite a slowdown in new investment, the macro economy has outperformed expectations in 2023, indicating a soft landing is more likely. A yield curve normalization could place additional upward pressure on long-term interest rates and cap rates into 2024.