Arbor Realty Trust’s Special Report Fall 2026, developed in partnership with Chandan Economics, leverages data-driven research to detail the state of the rental housing market. Amid headwinds, multifamily remained resilient in a selective investment environment favoring disciplined underwriting and market selection. Attractive entry points for well-positioned investors continue to populate the road ahead.
The U.S. multifamily market remains on stable footing in a mixed macroeconomic climate. Rent growth continued to trend upward through the second quarter, while apartment fundamentals remained resilient amid slowing employment growth and elevated vacancies.
Arbor’s latest Single-Family Rental Investment Trends Report highlights how this commercial real estate sector performed resiliently in the face of adversity last quarter. Even as policy uncertainty created new headwinds, firm operating fundamentals drove SFR forward.
Build-to-rent (BTR) development remained resilient in a complicated operating environment last quarter as production continued to normalize, according to newly released U.S. Census Bureau data. Despite political uncertainty, higher capital costs, and other headwinds, BTR maintained a historically high share of new single-family construction.
The small multifamily sector entered the second half of 2026 demonstrating strength and stability as capital markets remained selective.
While national multifamily permitting stabilizes, the authorization of new apartment buildings with five or more units has become more heavily concentrated in smaller, rapidly growing metropolitan areas. From Durham, NC, to Fayetteville, AR, and Raleigh, NC, new U.S. Census Bureau data reveal where multifamily permitting was most concentrated and where it was accelerating fastest in the first half of 2026.
Small multifamily lending activity rose during the first half of 2026. According to the latest Small Multifamily Investment Trends Report from Arbor Realty Trust and Chandan Economics, originations on loans with original balances between $1 million and $9 million reached an annualized pace of $71.6 billion through the second quarter. At this pace, originations are running 2.8% above the $69.6 billion total for 2025, placing small multifamily on pace for a third consecutive annual increase.
Arbor Realty Trust’s latest Small Multifamily Investment Trends Report, developed in partnership with Chandan Economics, evaluates what’s driving this sector’s ongoing stability as macroeconomic conditions remain mixed. Loan originations rose last quarter, and valuations are rebounding, signaling that normalization is taking hold.
While the impact of COVID-19 contributed to a 0.9% decline in small multifamily prices in the first quarter of 2020, they are still up 5.5% from a year ago.
Chandan Economics’ analysis noted that annualized first-quarter small multifamily loan value fell to $55.2 billion, representing a 6.7% decline in lending activity compared to last year. Yet the report provides reasons for reassurance. The dependability of underlying multifamily demand and the agencies’ commitment to providing programs that maintain market liquidity support the sector’s traditional resiliency. Even with the uncertainties caused by the coronavirus, multifamily is expected to outperform other sectors.
Download the full report, “Q1 2020 Small Multifamily Investment Trends Report,” for the latest updates covering the following:
