In the last quarter of 2022, the multifamily sector continues to thrive despite ongoing economic uncertainty. As the investment community looks ahead to 2023, Arbor’s Managing Director, Senior Production Officer Jean-Laurent Pouliot discusses what’s in store for multifamily and how Arbor is positioned to help investors continue to exceed expectations next year.
Arbor’s latest Affordable Housing Trends Report, produced in partnership with Chandan Economics, examines the affordable housing market’s growth trajectory in a challenging economic climate.
Multifamily rent growth remained strong in the San Antonio market during the third quarter of 2022, although began showing deceleration from the most recent record highs measured earlier in the year. Barriers to homeownership continued to drive rental demand, as vacancy rates reached all-time lows.
With the latest release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), policymakers and consumers alike found signs of inflation relief for the first time in a long time. Despite the CPI’s overall improvement in October, one notable price category is still seeing rising inflation: rent of primary residence. The annual growth rate for the rent component of the CPI has now increased for 15 consecutive months.
The single-family rental (SFR) market maintained a favorable outlook in the third quarter of 2022 as the national housing market began cooling. Amid economic headwinds, SFR is well-positioned as a primary alternative for would-be homebuyers priced out of ownership in today’s high-interest-rate housing market.
The U.S. multifamily market continued to expand during the third quarter of 2022, although at a more modest pace. Additionally, some new areas have shown up on the list of top rent growth markets.
With investors now seeking inflation protection, the small multifamily sector continues to see gains. Arbor’s new quarterly Small Multifamily Investment Trends Report, published in partnership with Chandan Economics, sheds light on key trends, including firm cap rates, climbing valuations, and elevated originations, despite tightening underwriting standards.
The U.S. multifamily market continued to expand during the third quarter of 2022, although at a more modest pace.
After struggling through the first half of the year, the U.S. multifamily market burst through in the third quarter of 2021. Moody’s Analytics REIS reported that effective rent growth climbed 7.9% year-over-year, up from -1.6% for the second quarter. The vacancy rate improved to 4.7%, down from 5.3% in the previous quarter.
Multifamily rent growth for the U.S. overall was up 7.9% year-over-year during the third quarter of 2021, as Sun Belt markets continued to drive the recovery.
Las Vegas remained one of the nation’s top multifamily performers in the third quarter of 2021, with among the highest rent growth among large markets. After a brief pause at the onset of the pandemic, investors once again flooded into the market as sales volume neared a pace to reach 2019’s record high. The market also rose to the top of our Arbor-Chandan Large Multifamily Opportunity Matrix in 2021.
The Q3 2021 Small Multifamily Investment Trends Report finds that the asset class may be less impacted by work from home trends than larger properties as fewer small multifamily tenants can work remotely. See how the small multifamily sector performed by reading the full report.
Our 2021 Top Markets for Large Multifamily Investment Report ranks the top 50 U.S. metros based on eight key categories. Presented in the Arbor-Chandan Large Multifamily Opportunity Matrix, the top-ranking markets scored high in factors like labor market performance, renter demographics, population growth and COVID-19 response.
The SFR sector remained strong in the second quarter of 2021, as record demand led to surging rent growth and improving cap rates.