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Following strong post-pandemic gains, the U.S. labor market has cooled over the past few months, placing multifamily investors in a position to realize the benefits of less restrictive monetary policy.

Small multifamily continued to moderate through the midpoint of 2024, amid strong demand despite an elevated interest rate environment and rising property-level yields.

The single-family rental (SFR) sector’s performance surged again last quarter, demonstrating its ability to thrive in all economic cycles. SFR construction continued its record-breaking ascent as CMBS activity blossomed. Arbor’s Single-Family Rental Investment Trends Report Q3 2024, developed in partnership with Chandan Economics, examines the sector’s fundamentals as would-be homeowners weigh the rent-vs-buy calculation.

Did you know that at the same time many renters navigate a housing market with limited affordable options, new apartment development continues to be held back by World War II-era zoning restrictions? In many localities, regulations introduced in the mid-1940s have choked the multifamily pipeline for decades, creating a “missing middle” that leaves low-income renters in a lurch.

Increasingly, single-family rental (SFR) operators have been relying on build-to-rent (BTR) development to bridge the housing gap, accelerating the momentum of SFR construction through 2024’s halfway point. Both total SFR/BTR housing starts and BTR’s share of all single-family housing starts reached new record highs in the second quarter, setting the stage for another banner year.

The small multifamily outlook continues to brighten as more signs indicate a normalization has already begun. In the second quarter, originations activity and borrowing conditions improved as completions sat at a five-decade high, Arbor’s Small Multifamily Investment Trends Report Q3 2024, developed in partnership with Chandan Economics, shows. While the subsector’s fundamentals are trending up, it still has room for growth when interest rate relief arrives.

While the overall pace of new multifamily permitting per capita in the U.S. slowed recently, it has picked up momentum in pockets of the country, especially the Midwest. In the first two quarters of 2024, Madison, WI, Columbus, OH, and Omaha, NE, were among the major metropolitan markets posting solid permitting gains, another sign of multifamily’s strength in all cycles.

The U.S. multifamily market followed the quick pandemic contraction with a strong recovery, and has now normalized into a more stable cycle. Demand remained strong across the country, with a wide variety of markets among the leaders for rent growth.

Did you know that more U.S. renters now spend over 30% of their income on housing and utilities than at any other time on record? Limited affordable housing options not only increase the rent burdens of low-income tenants but disrupt physical and mental health, underscoring the need for the creation and preservation of more affordable housing units nationwide. Quality affordable housing adds stability to communities and supports healthier environments that can significantly improve well-being.

After skyrocketing through a boom cycle over the past two years, the U.S. multifamily market settled into a cycle of stabilization in the first half of 2024. Rents held steady, occupancy increased, and vacancy rates remained in line with historical averages, while investor sentiment remained positive.